Geothermal Energy: The Missing Foundation of the Energy Transition.

Why critical infrastructure needs clean, secure and uninterrupted energy — not only electricity when the weather permits.

The energy transition has entered its most difficult phase.

The first phase was predominantly about installing renewable generation capacity. The next phase must ensure that increasingly electrified economies can operate reliably, competitively and securely around the clock.

Wind and solar power are indispensable components of this transition. However, an energy system cannot be judged solely by how much electricity it produces over the course of a year. Electricity must be available at the precise location and moment at which it is required.

Hospitals cannot wait for the wind to return. Data centres cannot suspend their operations overnight. Water treatment plants, telecommunications networks, transport systems, industrial facilities and public services cannot operate according to the weather.

This is where geothermal energy becomes essential.

Critical infrastructure cannot run on averages

Modern societies depend on an interconnected network of critical infrastructure. Energy, digital communications, healthcare, water supply, food production, transportation, financial systems and public administration all require uninterrupted electricity.

The European Union's Critical Entities Resilience framework reflects this reality. It covers essential sectors including energy, transport, banking, health, drinking water, wastewater, digital infrastructure, public administration, space and food. Operators within these sectors are increasingly expected to identify risks and implement measures that protect the continuity of essential services.

For these organisations, energy is not merely a commodity. It is part of their operational security.

A temporary interruption may mean more than lost production. It can affect public safety, data integrity, national security, supply chains and the functioning of entire communities.

Critical infrastructure therefore requires power that is:

• continuously available;
• predictable and controllable;
• protected against market and geopolitical volatility;
• resilient to weather-related disruption;
• capable of operating independently or alongside the electricity grid; and
• compatible with long-term decarbonisation objectives.

Geothermal energy meets these requirements in a way that few other renewable sources can.

Renewable power that is available 24 hours a day

Geothermal energy uses heat stored beneath the Earth's surface to produce electricity and, depending on the project, provide heating and cooling.

Unlike weather-dependent generation, the underlying energy source is continuous. Geothermal plants can provide electricity throughout the day and throughout the year. According to the International Energy Agency, global geothermal capacity achieved an average utilisation rate of more than 75% in 2023, compared with less than 30% for wind power and less than 15% for solar photovoltaic generation. Geothermal plants can also operate flexibly and support electricity-system stability.

Fig. 1 — Capacity factor: firm versus variable

Bar chart comparing average capacity factor. Global geothermal capacity ran above 75 percent in 2023; wind under 30 percent; solar photovoltaics under 15 percent. Source: International Energy Agency.

This makes geothermal more than another renewable technology.

It is firm, dispatchable and baseload-capable renewable energy.

Geothermal can provide the stable foundation upon which wind, solar, batteries and other technologies can be integrated. It does not replace these resources. It makes a system with high levels of variable renewable generation more reliable.

The future energy system should therefore not be framed as geothermal versus wind or solar. The real opportunity lies in combining technologies according to their respective strengths:

Wind and solar provide abundant variable electricity. Storage manages short-term fluctuations. Geothermal provides the continuous renewable foundation.

Fig. 2 — One day: the continuous foundation

A schematic 24-hour output profile. Geothermal is a flat, continuous baseload floor; variable wind and solar sit above it, rising to a midday peak and falling overnight. The figure is illustrative and not to scale.

A more resilient 'Energiewende'

The original ambition of the "Energiewende" (Def.: Energiewende—literally "energy transition"—is a distinct German policy term because it describes the simultaneous phase-out of baseload power while expanding renewables. It has largely failed to deliver its core promise: Germany still faces high energy prices, inadequate baseload capacity, greater import dependence and continued reliance on coal and gas) was to move from fossil fuels and nuclear generation towards a cleaner, renewable energy system.

That objective remains valid. But capacity additions alone do not create a resilient energy system.

As economies electrify transportation, heating, cooling, manufacturing and digital infrastructure, electricity demand will increase substantially. The European Commission has proposed that electricity could account for 46% of final energy consumption in the European Union by 2040, subject to further assessment. It also identifies grid access and connection delays as major constraints on electrification.

The next generation of the Energiewende must consequently address four objectives simultaneously:

Decarbonisation. Reliability. Affordability. Energy sovereignty.

A system that is environmentally sustainable but operationally unreliable will not retain public or industrial support. A system that depends excessively on imported fuels remains exposed to geopolitical disruption. A system that requires extensive backup generation may reduce emissions on paper without resolving the underlying problem of energy security.

Geothermal addresses these challenges by transforming domestic subsurface heat into locally generated power.

Once developed, the resource is not dependent on continuous fuel deliveries, international shipping routes or volatile commodity markets. It can provide long-term visibility over energy supply and operating costs while reducing exposure to external disruption.

This makes geothermal not only a climate solution, but also an infrastructure, competitiveness and sovereignty solution.

The digital economy needs physical energy

The expansion of artificial intelligence, cloud computing and digital services is creating a new category of concentrated electricity demand.

The International Energy Agency estimates that data centres consumed approximately 415 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2024. Their consumption is projected to more than double to around 945 terawatt-hours by 2030. Grid connection queues, transmission constraints and equipment shortages could delay a significant proportion of planned data-centre developments.

The trend accelerated further in 2025, when global data-centre electricity demand increased by 17%. AI-focused facilities grew even faster, while developers faced tightening supplies of transformers, turbines, grid capacity and other essential infrastructure.

This leads to a simple conclusion:

There is no digital transformation without physical energy infrastructure.

Data centres, semiconductor facilities, automated manufacturing plants and advanced telecommunications networks require large quantities of continuous, high-quality electricity. Their economic value depends on availability, uptime and predictability.

Behind-the-meter or dedicated geothermal generation can offer such facilities a long-term energy solution that is renewable, locally anchored and less exposed to grid congestion. Depending on the location and project configuration, geothermal systems may also provide cooling, heating or opportunities to reuse thermal energy.

This creates the potential for integrated energy campuses in which power generation, cooling, heat management and industrial operations are designed as one system rather than as separate infrastructure.

From geological potential to scalable infrastructure

Geothermal energy is not new. It has supplied electricity and heat in several countries for more than a century.

What is changing is the range of resources that can be accessed.

Advances in subsurface imaging, horizontal drilling, reservoir modelling, well construction and completion technology are allowing developers to evaluate deeper and more complex geothermal resources. The International Energy Agency estimates that, with continued technological progress and cost reductions, geothermal energy could meet up to 15% of global electricity-demand growth through 2050. It also concludes that next-generation geothermal resources could make the technology relevant in many more countries than those traditionally associated with volcanic activity.

Much of the required capability already exists.

The IEA estimates that up to 80% of geothermal-project investment involves skills and capabilities shared with the oil and gas industry. These include geology, geophysics, reservoir engineering, drilling, completions, fluid management, project execution and subsurface risk assessment.

The energy transition does not require abandoning this expertise. It requires applying it to a new purpose.

Proven industrial methods can now be combined with digital subsurface modelling, advanced monitoring and AI-assisted evaluation. The objective is not to replace engineering judgement, but to improve resource screening, reduce uncertainty, optimise development decisions and manage risk throughout the project lifecycle.

Reliability must be designed into the project

Geothermal projects remain capital-intensive and subsurface uncertainty must be managed carefully. Responsible development therefore requires disciplined project selection, phased investment and clearly defined technical and commercial thresholds.

The strongest geothermal projects begin with the energy requirement of the customer.

How much continuous power is required? How critical is operational uptime? Is the project connected to the grid, behind the meter or designed as an independent energy system? Can heating, cooling or thermal storage be integrated? What level of redundancy is necessary? How will capacity expand as the customer grows?

Only then should the subsurface resource, generation system, project structure and long-term energy contract be designed.

This customer-led approach turns geothermal development from an isolated power-generation exercise into a complete infrastructure solution.

Catoxy Energy: building the reliable layer of the energy transition

At Catoxy Energy, we believe the future of energy will not be defined solely by the lowest theoretical generation cost or the highest volume of installed capacity.

It will be defined by the ability to deliver clean energy when and where it is required.

Our approach combines experienced technical and commercial professionals, established subsurface and project-development methods, modern digital capabilities and structured risk management. We focus on geothermal solutions for critical infrastructure, industrial customers, data centres, utilities and communities that require dependable, long-term energy.

This may include utility-scale generation, behind-the-meter facilities, dedicated energy-supply projects and integrated power, heating and cooling solutions.

The objective is not simply to produce renewable electricity.

It is to provide the reliable energy foundation that allows industries to invest, infrastructure to function and societies to electrify with confidence.

The energy transition has produced unprecedented momentum. Its next challenge is reliability.

Geothermal energy can provide it.

Reliability. The New Energy Currency.